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Elliott Wave analyst's thoughts on Bitcoin

(NB: typos mine; crappy OCR software. If anyone wants to see the Eliott Wave he's discussing and I'll make it available.)
Bitcoin Bubble or Bitcoin Breakthrough? How about both?
by Elliott Prechter
December 20, 2013 in the Elliott Wave Theorist
EWT discussed Bitcoin for the first time in August 2010, when the currency traded at six cents. As far as we know, EWI was the first financial publisher to discuss it. Bitcoin was unknown to the general public and off private investors’ radar. Even the earliest adopters did not take it as seriously as they should have. The most notable example of this is the man who paid 10,000 BTC for a pizza. This pizza purchase is now famous (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=l37.0), and many continue to track its price in USD terms via the “Bitcoin Pizza Index," which recently hit an all-time high of over S12 million.
Fast forward to today, and the currency is regularly featured in financial news and social media. Bitcoin Magazine has become popular, Congress is holding hearings on the currency, Germany has defined its role in finance, China is ruling on its legality, and the business world is adopting it. The most prominent business to embrace Bitcoin is Virgin Galactic, one of the many creations of billionaire Richard Branson (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101220710).
EWT readers were prepared for all this. When Bitcoin was still in the shadows, the August 2012 issue said,
Presuming bitcoin succeeds as the world’s best currency-and I believe it will-it should rise many more multiples in value over the years. -EWT, August 2012
The big question on the minds of investors is not what Bitcoin has achieved, but should they buy Bitcoins now? It’s amusing that so many people ignored Bitcoin upon hearing about it in 20 1 0, but now that its price has gone up 20,000 times, they want to invest. Notwithstanding the currency’s potential, this shift in attitude is a signal saying now is not the time to buy. Let’s look at four areas of evidence:
1) Optimism is off the charts. Past issues of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast discussed people selling their homes and borrowing money to invest in Bitcoins. That was near the peak of wave Now the desire to buy has grown even more extreme. Bloggers are calling for Bitcoin to reach S1 million. . .soon. One young investor borrowed a million dollars from his father and without his knowledge invested it in Bitcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=359228.0). The other day I walked into a convenience store wearing a Bitcoin T-shirt, and the owner asked me if he should invest now. I felt like I was living in 1929.
2) Investors have recently been rushing to buy a rash of 95 (at last count; see https://bitcointalk. org/index.php?topic=l34179.0) new clones of Bitcoin that have recently emerged: Litecoin, Namecoin, Zerocoin, BBQCoin, PPcoin, PrimeCoin, NovaCoin, FeatherCoin, TerraCoin, Devcoin, Megacoin, Mincoin, DigitalCoin, Anoncoin, Worldcoin, Freicoin, IxCoin... and more. (That they are clones is obvious from the lack of imagination in naming.) This rush of clones is reminiscent of the South Sea bubble of 1720 and the dot-com mania of 1999, when shares of zero-profit, copycat companies (and even fake ones) sold like hotcakes. Virtually every week now, the Bitcoin code is forked into a new coin that investors bid up. lt’s as if buyers feel the world will run out of cryptocurrency, which in fact is infinitely and freely duplicable.
3) The Elliott wave pattern from Bitcoin’s inception shows five waves up. The December ll Short Term Update noted that a major top was potentially in place: The peak [in Bitcoin] came 10 days after U.S. officials, ranging from an assistant attorney general with the Department of Justice to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, “spoke approvingly of the potential of virtual currencies." So, here again, the government is getting on board at the very tail end ofa long rise. Since we posted that comment, Bitcoin has fallen an additional 40%, bringing it down nearly 60% from its all-time high.
Will this prove to be just another brief, sharp correction or something larger? Take a look at the completed impulse pattern shown in Figure 3. The structure begins very near the inception of the currency three-plus years ago, when it was selling for a penny. Notice that wave @ is a triangle (see text, p.49), which typically comes in the fourth-wave position. Wave a thrust, carried to the all-time high of S 1242 on November 29. The reversal from that point should mark the start of the largest bear market to date in the currency. This forecast is in tune with the anticipated bear market in the broader stock averages, which have strongly correlated with Bitcoin’s pattern.
The chart is in log scale to show the returns one would have achieved in each impulse leg of the pattern. Wave Q) achieved a stunning 3 19ox gain. Wave ® achieved 59.3% (a Fibonacci 3/5) of the gain of wave Q). Wave ® (measured from the low of wave @) achieved 39.3% (a Fibonacci 2/5) of the gain of wave (D and 66.3% (a Fibonacci 2/3) of the gain of wave Therefore, while each upward move has been large, each successive wave has been decelerating in log terms relative to past waves, in each case by a Fibonacci multiple. Also notice that Bitcoin trades more like a commodity than a stock, with its blow-off tops and extended fifih waves. Most of the gain since early 20 12 has been within (5) of ® and the final wave all of which is probable retracement territory.
4) Most people involved in this mania seem oblivious to Bitcoin’s fundamentals. In my experience, raising these issues publicly earns scorn for spreading “FUD.” But there is a good reason-now widely ignored-that Bitcoin is beta software. Our August 2010 piece explained how Bitcoin operates, but it’s worth revisiting some details to understand just how out-of-touch investor expectations are with the reality of Bitcoin technology. Specifically, let's examine the limitations of Bitcoin’s blockchain.
The blockchain is the heart of Bitcoin. In its simplest form, the blockchain is a public ledger of all transactions that happen in the Bitcoin network. Each block is composed of individual records that track the ownership of each coin. The transactions “fit” together cryptographically. A block is created about once every 10 minutes by the network. Each block is then cryptographically linked to the previous blocks in the chain, forming a history of all transactions that-to Bitcoin’s credit-cannot be forged. To the extent that Bitcoin currency is real, it could be said that the blockchain is the Bitcoin currency.
Yet the core problem with the blockchain is that it grows over time and must be shared by every fiill Bitcoin node. Today it is nearing 13 GB in size. Now, 13 GB doesn't sound too large, but at the current rates of exponential growth the blockchain is projected to become over a terabyte in size in just three years. What's more, the amount of accompanying data required to handle just a fraction of Visa-level traffic would overwhelm even the fastest Internet connections. This technical hurdle makes the “Bitcoin is going to a million” commentary seem premature.
The hope for Bitcoin’s future lies in its open-source nature, allowing it to be improved, and Moore’s Law. Moore’s Law is colloquially used to signify the exponential increases in computer-hardware efficiency over time, including network capacity. But Moore’s law-which calls for a doubling of computer speed every two years-has hit a snag in recent years: the rate of improvement in performance has dramatically slowed, causing many experts to call for the end of the operation of Moore’s law. (For the record, Moore’s Law was never intended to refer to computer hardware performance, but the media have confused the term to the point where it is now generally used in this context. Originally, it was intended to refer to the increase in the number of transistors that are packed into microchips.)
The past four years have been an exciting ride for Bitcoin. But the evidence says the Bitcoin bull market is done for now. It would be best to put Bitcoin out of your mind for the duration of the deflationary wave that is curling toward the financial world. Due to the psychology surrounding Bitcoin, as well as its correlation with the stock indices, it is too risky to buy now. Due to its open-source nature, however, Bitcoin’s infrastructure should continue to improve over the years.
For the long run, I agree with Roger Ver, the CEO of memory dealers and one of Bitcoin’s earliest adopters, who recently said, “It is just getting started." But one could have said that about the U.S. stock market in 1966. It would have been visionary only if you were patient and willing to hold through a very deep valley. Our position is that Bitcoin will never again sell for 6 cents, as it did when EWT first wrote it up. But there will be another time to buy it for relative peanuts alongside stocks, real-estate, gold and silver. When the time comes, no one will be interested.
Elliott Prechter's primary task at EWI is working on EWA VES, our in-house artificial intelligence softwarefor analyzing Elliott waves.
submitted by Indy_Pendant to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Deep Web Diver [Continuation]

Just like centuries ago explorers ventured to distant lands to satisfy their curiosity, prove something to the world or get fame, I’ve decided that a deep web was my “Terra Incognita” from which I would return with glory. For those of you who don’t know, the deep web is a part of the internet that cannot be accessed through ordinary search engines. The usual comparison of the Internet to an iceberg is pretty on the spot: you can only see the tip of it, which accounts for all of the websites you can see, and the rest of it is buried under the water. However, I think that comparing it to the ocean, with its many layers, where you can’t see the bottom and the light eventually fades away as you go deeper, would be more suitable.
Most of the websites and pages there are nothing special: if the search engine can’t see them it doesn’t immediately make them shady. No, this first layer is just beneath the waterline of search engines’ digital ships, containing things like databases, unlinked pages, online dropboxes, scripts and private data.
A large chunk of this layer is a virtual analog of the Dead Sea - hundreds of millions of websites that weren’t finished or indexed properly, and thus remained dead and aborted by their creators; carcasses of someone’s ambitions, silently floating around the world.
In oceanology, this place is known as the Epipelagic Zone or The Sunlight Zone as I like to call it. You can “swim” safely here, taking some occasional dives, with the greatest risk being getting a virus or leaving your e-mail for some spambot to find.
Just below it lies “the Twilight Zone” of the web: still accessible to the common public, but not without some hardships. It is comprised of everything we, people, find embarrassing and shameful enough to hide from unwanted eyes: online casinos, porn sites that balance on the edge of being legal, specific forums and encrypted transmissions. Many of us have been there, although we hate to admit that fact for obvious reasons. If you’re willing to find more, to go deeper, you’ll need special equipment: entering the true infamous Deep Web – or the Dark Web, as it is also called, - is impossible without required software, due to its encrypted nature. If popular search engines are ships, then this software is your personal submarine, and only by using it you can get to The Midnight Zone of the Internet, the legendary Bagdad of the web, where you can find anything, and beyond which I’ve found an evil genie that still haunts me to this day.
Just like on the streets of the aforementioned city, you can meet all kinds of people here, but this shadowy digital alternative has its reasons to be hidden so well. There are merchants, selling mostly illegal things like drugs, unregistered firearms, intel that should not be shared and, of course, illegal pornography, which is a disgustingly popular product here. All of that with a simple and comfortable design of an online shop located near you and ready to serve you around the clock. All it takes is a click of a button.
You can also find shady figures that can provide you with services you can’t find on higher levels of accessibility: if you want to spend a night at your place with a naughty guest for a moderate price but don’t know who to call, you can just search here and surely you’ll find an online brothel nearby ready to take your request and bring service to you.
Hackers are also very common here, and from what I’ve heard for a fair price their skills will become yours for some time. Most of them communicate on secluded websites which are nearly impossible to enter if you’re not wanted there: there are dozens of encryptions and surveys to stop anyone who’d like to try. For a fair price, their skills will become yours, although you better pay up at the end of your deal: these guys can ruin your life from the other side of the world.
The deep web even has its own money, bitcoins: the untraceable digital currency, very popular for its former quality. Anything on the deep web can be bought for them, even more, money, as weird as that sounds: fake or stolen credit cards are just another type of goods here.
Sometimes, the services offered seem almost absurd: for a reasonably large monthly fee, you can subscribe to a database of hacked credit cards, which is renewed on a daily basis. The digital robbery has evolved and entered the whole new level: hackers don’t go for one pocket, but instead they rob them by the gross and leaving it up to you to actually empty them. The development of the economy made them successfully re-qualified from thiefs to entrepreneurs.
It may seem that the Dark Web was “a wretched hive of scum and villainy”, but, believe it or not, I’ve found this kingdom of mischief to be relatively innocent. Mostly because I knew that people there were small fry. They were doing wrong things every minute, every second all around the world at once, constantly busy with stealing, selling and distributing things, but they weren’t the final instance of evil on the web. No, there was also a place known as the Dark Web, hidden beyond what was hidden. An ocean beneath an ocean. The place that I’ve only heard about, largely because it was completely inaccessible, but also because even my curiosity wouldn’t lead me there.
I know that I’ve already used this term, but let me clarify: over the course of time these two terms got confused and people started calling the Dark Web with a more generic Deep Web term. Most IT specialists attribute this confusion to public ignorance that was only spread through mass media. However, I believe that there had never been any confusion: the term “Dark Web” was coined to forever differentiate the most nefarious part of the Internet from the rest of it. Remember the analogy with the layers of an ocean? Welcome to the Abyss Zone.
I’m not saying it lightly: The Dark Web is really the deepest pit of hell, only it has been built by sinners themselves. It is the most restricted part of the Internet, and its creators had a good reason to make it such since it is used for the most despicable purposes in the world. The gift of freedom and anonymity here is perverted into a tool of terror and crime and serves the murkiest corners of humanity’s collective consciousness.
If someone was kidnapped for the purpose of later being sold into slavery, he would most likely turn up here as another item for sale. Unfortunately, in the 21st century slavery was still a thriving, and the existence of global encrypted communication and transactions only served its cause. Most of those poor souls would go under the hammer to the highest bidder. Others were, for the lack of better word, expendable: their fate was to be abused and killed during the filming of snuff videos and other disturbing content. Ending up in a private clinic where their organs would be harvested was also a possibility for them.
Organized groups of hackers also operated from there: while their activity was a stuff of speculations, the level of encryption that they used meant that they were up to nothing good. My only guess was that they were the organizers of all the activity on the Dark Web, administrators of their own tidy hell that, just like the original one, existed underground, only in a different meaning of the word.
The Dark Web was also a place where you could hire a killer, and their services had a much greater demand and supply that one could assume. They operated all around the world, in every large city, and anonymity and untraceable nature of bitcoins provided them with perfect alibis, as well as drew in new candidates for the job. From what I’ve heard, they weren’t even always professionals, just some usual people, office clerks who after a long day of work wanted to provide themselves with an additional income. Their fees were disgustingly low: apparently, the cost of human life was no higher than a table in IKEA.
I stayed away from that place and never tried to gain entry, instead only going as deep as the Deep Web. And it may seem like a very strange and maybe even bizarre thing to say, but despite the criminal nature of the deep web, there was something that I found very appealing to me. I didn’t realize it at first, but the deep web was so attractive not because of the incriminating nature of its content, but because it had a spirit of adventure surrounding it. It was the last hub of that true, anarchic freedom in our regulated world, where we could set our inner child free and do whatever we want. I didn’t engage in any unlawful activities, but even without that, the sheer presence of opportunities intoxicated me. Among all the mischief, gambling and illegal trading I, ironically, felt like one of Peter Pan’s lost boys.
So, even though my mission of impressing my peers was over, I returned to the depths of the Deep Web afterward. My journey was only beginning.
Everything I’ve told you so far was information that I’ve prepared for a presentation, and, lucky for me, I still have it with me after two years, so I didn’t have to think twice of what to tell you. But everything from this point on is linked to my experiences with the DW afterward.
I’ve started to spend a lot of time on the deep web. With university, homework and a part-time job I didn’t have any other time to browse the net other than late at night. I barely slept, and my eyes always had characteristic dark circles under them, but I didn’t regret that. In my eyes, I was becoming a part of something secretive, some mystery that was bigger than me. I became a net-stalker, only my obsession was not someone’s social network profile, but the Internet and its dark corners itself.
Aside from its illegal uses, the deep web could also be used for other, less incriminating purposes. Since it was not regulated and essentially existed under the radar of “the Big Brother”, people all around the world used it to communicate and share information without restraints – which was very useful for those who lived in countries under dictatorship’s rule. North Koreans were common guests on local forums, but the most welcome ones were whistleblowers.
There were a lot of people on local encrypted forums who were willing to share some insight on politics, economics, social studies and just some insider information that they wouldn’t be able to share on common open forums. Their stories and statements they made to their anonymous addressees were sometimes absolutely crazy and seemed made up, but they never failed to gather listeners, and I was one of them.
Naturally, the credibility of their statements was up to you to decide. However, in some rare cases, people went to great lengths to provide their audience with proofs of their words. In their cases, you could tell that they were very eager to spread the word and to make it believable, and from the nature of said information, it was obvious that, if it was true, they risked a lot doing so.
There were a few “stories” that stood out to me both in terms of impossibility and credibility. One of such “speakers” was a guy who worked at Moscow’s underground as an accountant. From him, I learned everything about it, including what a massive structure it is. It consists of one circular line in the center which is crossed by numerous other ones that stretch in all directions, gaining the resemblance of squid’s tentacles that try to seize their prey. Constantly being expanded, the network has already outgrown the city, and some of its lines go even beyond it.
The network lies very deep under the capital, as it also doubles as the largest in the world bunker. It was built with this intention even before the Cold War, and over the years it only expanded and got deeper and bigger, connecting to a vast network of other bunkers for civilians, military personnel and “privileged” of the country.
There was also a system of the tunnels that the poster referred to as “Metro-2” – a restricted area only for the government figures. If the metro was a circulatory system of the city, then Metro-2 was its lymphatic system, connecting Kremlin, the Russian parliament, government bunkers, airports and even military structures that were located far outside of Moscow, into one single organism.
All of the above facts only added to the shock when the man provided a very interesting and grim piece of statistics: every day, the number of people who entered the metro network exceeded by the tiniest margin the number of people who left it. According to him, there couldn’t be any mistake: not a fly would go in or out unnoticed, as such an important part of infrastructure was heavily surveyed. The statistics also included suicides and gatecrashers, so they weren’t the cause of the mismatch. People were going down, under their city, and just disappeared without a trace in a vast network of underground tunnels without any obvious reason, never to be seen again.
Every year, 100,000 people disappear in Russia without a trace – a truly horrendous number. Yet to know that some of them vanish not just in the middle of Russian capital, but on its public transport, was both distressing and horrifying. Its size comes back to haunt me, as looking for gone people there seemed like an impossible task. Pinpointing the exact place and time where they were disappearing was not possible, too.
But the most disturbing thing about the whole report was not the fact of disappearances. No, it was the photocopy of top-secret “eyes only” document that restricted the personnel of the metro from speaking about them. Repercussions for the disclosure of said information mentioned there were severe, and being pleaded guilty for treason was among them. But, according to the man, it was the fact that his higher-ups knew about what was happening and hid that fact from the public that pushed him to share this information with the world in the first place. He only wondered if they knew what was really behind it, and if they even were somehow involved in that.
It wasn’t the only case when something shocking was shared there: remember, only the place like deep web could welcome people like these to open up and speak. Yet sometimes, finally feeling safe under the protection of anonymizers, they would speak about things they would speak about things that were not meant to be mentioned beyond heavily secured doors.
One of the craziest, yet most backed up statements I’ve seen there was that for the last 50 years, humanity was involved in the one-sided war against aliens. To make that ludicrous proclamation even more bizarre, the author of the report stated that it was the aliens who had been on the receiving end.
Reports of alien activity were quite popular on the Internet in general, not just on the deep web, where the posters hoped to look more convincing by pretending that they were covering their tracks. So naturally, another statement like that didn’t surprise anyone. What was really unexpected was the number of documents that followed after that. Protocols of presidential meetings and secret G7 assemblies, numerous non-disclosure agreements, cash flows of money going seemingly nowhere, research reports, sky surveillances reports – all of it was there. Even if someone went so far as to fabricate all that, which would be a colossal amount of work, they would probably not post it for such a limited number of people after that.
That particular whistleblower stated that he was a high-ranking official of a secret governmental body in one of G7’s country members, and that the official reason for that organization’s existence was just a cover up for its true purpose – to coordinate the actions of the world’s strongest economic powers in the “defense”, as they called it, against extraterrestrial visitors. All other activity, while also essential, was ultimately just a ruse to conceal their main goal.
It sure sounded impossible to wage a war against extraterrestrials, and secretive at that. Our space program, while ambitious, was not at the interstellar level, and there were no reports from battlefields, not to mention the general difference in technology between humanity and the species that mastered interstellar travel. If such a war were to occur, it would be similar to pest extermination.
But that confusion was just a product of our ignorance. In pop-culture and, by extension, in the minds of the general population aliens usually carried out the role of invaders. In reality, they were no more than visitors, ambassadors of peace that were not welcomed. When they first arrived, they offered their help and cooperation to the world leaders, promising them, that, if they agreed to cooperation, then humanity would soon be among other prosperous races that fared among the stars. They asked for nothing in return, doing everything just out of desire to help other intelligent life – or to be less lonely in space.
But such a treaty would mean changes, and among them were the ones that governments couldn’t agree to. The ideas that aliens offered were progressive, phenomenal – but also too ahead of time, and if the rulers of Earth agreed to them, they would cease to exist due to not being necessary anymore. When everyone is their own ruler, there’s no place for laws and taxes.
So instead of doing what was for the best for humankind, they decided to do what was best for their power. They’d secretly put aside their differences and united in the face of a common enemy, the one who threatened to take away their privilege, their sovereignty. It was always speculated that common adversaries would unite people, but whoever said that probably didn’t imagine such self-destructive results.
And so, the secret war had begun. It was wrong to say that it was a war of humanity against aliens. No, in reality, it was aliens versus the 1%.
In a way, they turned the whole Earth into North Korea. And the irony is rich: we take pride in our technological advancements, we think that we are the only ones who have the privilege of intelligence, but at the same time our brothers shoot the messengers of peace and knowledge out of the sky without us even knowing about that.
I guess the aliens could just use the brute force, but that would undermine everything they’ve been working on. The governments wouldn’t lose that chance to prove their point and to tighten their grip on masses. No, violence wasn’t their way, and it wasn’t even a possibility.
And now, whenever you hear of alien sightings, whenever you see unexplained lights in the sky, you will know that those may well be starmen, trying to reach out to people like you, to show you the truth. But if for 50 years we’ve been told by the Big Brother that there’s nothing to see there, why would we think otherwise now?
There were many other stories that I would want to share with you. The stories about "killer files" that supposedly roam the internet - songs and videos that on at first glance seem harmless, but in reality contain frequencies deadly to humans. The stories about ancient websites that existed since the dawn of the internet and were rumored to be the gates of Hell. The tales and gossips of a wholly independent country of hackers in the Pacific situated off-coast on one of the abandoned oil platforms. Yes, there were different stories. But the one that I'm about to tell you is the one that got me into the mess I'm in. The information so dangerous that it is forbidden to even share. The true curse of our days.
That's it for now, expect to see the full and polished version in a few months. Thank you guys for sticking with me!
submitted by TheScandalist to Scandalist [link] [comments]

Meine Bitcoin-Prognose für 2019 YouTube CRYPTOPIG - YouTube Bitcoin Breaks $300!!! -- Dread Pirate Not Guilty? -- Silk Road 2.0 Launches MadBitcoins Live: Bitcoin Price Drops After New Chinese Bank Rumours, Aurora Down 50%, Dogecon?

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Meine Bitcoin-Prognose für 2019

Here are Today's MadBits: Bitcoin prices are in outer ... Skip navigation Sign in. Search. Loading... Close. This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue. Remove all; Disconnect ... The average price of one bitcoin was approximately 10,728.25 U.S. dollars at the end of September 2020. Bitcoins are traded on several independent exchanges ... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Der Bitcoin-Preis hat im Jahr 2018 über 84% an wert verloren. Damit befindet sich der Kurs tief in einem Bärenmarkt. Bei solchen Kursrückgängen muss man die Frage stellen, ob Bitcoin ... Price Analysis Play all 14:18 ENJIN Releases MINECRAFT Integration!!! + RUSSIA Going Heavy into CRYPTO + BITCOIN Price Analysis - Duration: 14 minutes, 18 seconds.